Just to register how a political (and historical) event can affect the Forex Market, here's Forexyard market analysis:
On Monday, the U.S. Dollar made extremely significant gains against most of its major currency pairs ahead of Barack Obama's inauguration, which takes place later today. This is in contrast to Sunday's trading session that saw the Dollar go bearish against its main currency pairs, such as the GBP and the EUR. The Dollar's rebound since the start of Tuesday's trading session has left many traders excited at the prospects of what lies ahead of them in the coming trading days.
The Dollar gained a massive 300 pips against the EUR, and a massive 550 pips versus the GBP, to close yesterday's trading at 1.3038 and 1.4308 respectively. The Dollar also rose against the JPY to close yesterday's session at 90.34. The Dollar has also continued to maintain its strength since the start of today's trading. There are a number of important factors that contributed to the Dollar's spike yesterday. These include optimism in the U.S. ahead of Barack Obama's inauguration, low trading volume, and the bleak outlook for Britain and the Euro-Zone.
As the Obama's inauguration becomes closer, the Dollar has been responding with bullishness. Investors have been attracted to the Dollar, due to renewed optimism of a new U.S. administration that may do away with adversary politics in the U.S. Not only that: it seems that there is wide support for Obama's additional $850 billion stimulus plan. As of late, he seems the only man that can rescue the U.S. from her dire economic situation. Therefore, as the excitement builds, so does the value of the Dollar.
The low trading volume on Monday, owed to few news events coming out of Europe and the U.S. as the Martin Luther King Jr. bank holiday also helped the Dollar gain strength. Adding to this, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) said that the Euro-Zone's economy is likely to slump 1.9%, rather than the previously forecasted 1%. This obviously added to the EUR's decline against the Dollar
Yesterday, in regards to the GBP's decline, the Royal Bank OF Scotland (RBS) set shock waves through Britain and Europe as RBS's shares declined 67%. This led to renewed fears of nationalization of Banks across Britain. These different factors show that economic woes across the Atlantic may continue to support the Dollar.
The issue that may have played mostly into trading when it came to the EUR and the GBP against the U.S. is the inauguration of Barack Obama later today. Investors and most of the U.S. populous see Obama as the only man that may be able to pull America out of the worst economic crisis since "The Great Depression." This is likely to play into investor's behavior in the coming trading days too.
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are the two basic tools used to follow and predict the behavior of the forex market.
While fundamental analysis considers the factors that affect a country's economy and its effect on its currency, technical analysis predicts price movements and market trends by studyimg what has actually happened in the past. Technical analysis looks at the past performance and history of an investment and creates charts to be used as primary tools. It relies on data showing this history and current trends and patterns to make predictions of future market activity. It ignores the intrinsic value of the investment in favor of its statistical abstract. Technical analysis is only concerned with price movements and not with the reasons for any changes.
Technical analysis is used to identify significant patterns of market behavior. The history of the value of currency pairs is a matter of statistical record and can be easily accessed. Its supporters claim it is the only sure way of understanding the market and predicting its future based on the high probability that certain recognized patterns tend to repeat themselves on a consistent basis. This is especially true in the Forex market. Fans of technical analysis say that the economies of modern nations are so complex that they no longer can be accurately predicated. It is only in the study of the past history of the currency and the trends that are revealed that a possible glimpse of the future be found.
Forex technical analysis aims to support the investor in determining his views and forecasts regarding the exchange rates of currency pairs. The technical approach concentrates on prices and is based on objective tools like charts and tables, which neutralize external factors and emotions. It can and should be used to project movements in the Forex trade. Of course, in the end, it is going to be the investor's own preference that settles the question, and this is true of the market. Both fundamental analysis and technical analysis are mere tools that help make the decisions that in the end only the investor can make.
How can one predict market movements in Forex trading?
The two most useful tools used to forecast the behavior of the forex market are technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Technical analysis is concerned with the effects while fundamental analysis studies the causes of market movements.
Fundamental analysis forecasts future price movements based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors, like seasonal cycles, supply and demand, government policy. Fundamental analysis is a macro assessment of where a currency should be traded based on the movement of the currency's price itself. The economic conditions of the country, monetary policy and other fundamental elements play an important role on this assessment. Many profitable forex trades are made moments prior, or shortly after, major economic announcements.
Fundamental analysis considers the intrinsic value of an investment when making a decision as to its future activity. There are some who feel that this is an excellent method of making decisions in the Stock market as a lot of data can be gathered and studied concerning the value of a Company. But how can a Nation have an intrinsic value?
The answer is fairly simple. The economy of a country goes through a basic business cycle, and there are a lot of indicators available to the investor to measure where a particular economy stands at any given time. Such indicators are followed by traders worldwide. The analysis would involve matching the stage of the cycle with its impact on the value of its currency. The normal economic cycle consists of periods of inflation and deflation with peaks and troughs in between. Certain indicators such as the Gross National Product (GNP), Employment Report, Consumer Price Index and current prime interest rates can give a good idea of the stage of the economy at any given time.
Each of these indicators would tend to impact currency valuation in different ways, and sometimes would even vary from country to country. In the United States, rising interest rates are normally associated with currency deflation, for example, and it is factors such as this that are the heart of fundamental analysis. This analysis can become quite detailed, but the focus remains on the country and its economy. Every factor that impacts the country and its economy can play a role in the value of the currency, and understanding these factors are the tools the fundamental analyzers use to guide their investment strategy.
Economic News
USD Dollar Rises on Risk Aversion Trader's aversion to risk has continued to push safer currencies higher as global equity markets continue to trend lower. Both the Nikkei and Dow Jones Industrials ended lower yesterday and that has been influencing the currency markets. The financial markets show the concerns of a global recession. Traders have been unraveling riskier investments financed with loans from currencies with ultra low Interest Rates, predominately in the USD and the Yen. These two currencies may continue to see support in the short term as investors lose confidence in riskier assets.
The Dollar continued a 3-day rally against the EUR, finishing the day up at 1.3328. The Dollar also posted significant gains against the GBP, sending the pair down 2% to finish the day down 1.4774.
Trading today and tomorrow may be based on fundamental data coming from the United States. The U.S. trade balance report will be released today at 13:30 GMT and is expected to show a decline in the difference between U.S. exports and imports. Tomorrow the monthly retail sales report will be released. This report has proven increasingly difficult to accurately forecast. Traders will be looking for these reports for positive economic data to give direction for the struggling U.S. economy. EUR EUR Stops its Slide against the GBP The EUR continues to lose ground against the Dollar as added market risk weighs on the European currency. However, the currency did break a 4-day losing streak against the GBP to close the day up at 0.9020.
The EUR/GBP, which last year saw an appreciation in excess of 26%, has given back some of those gains so far this year. The drop in the GBP's valuation stems from an ever more deteriorating economic situation. The Bank of England (BoE) has slashed Interest Rates, at times cutting rates much faster and steeper than forecasted. British Interest Rates are predicted to fall close to 0% in the near future, and the next step of action perhaps could be the printing of new money or the purchase of commercial debt to stimulate the British economy.
The economic downturn has been very sharp for Britain and currently Interest Rates stand at an all time low. Despite the British recession, the Pound may be poised to head higher against the EUR on future European Interest Rate moves later this week.
Most traders are anxiously awaiting the Interest Rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this Thursday's meeting, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 0.50%. So despite the recessionary trends, we may see the EUR/GBP head lower on ECB rate cuts, with perhaps a return below the 0.8900 mark. JPY JPY Breaks Support Line As risk aversion heads higher, so does the value of the Yen. Yesterday the JPY strengthened across the board and dropped below a significant support line. At one point in yesterday's trading the USD/JPY fell to a low of 88.86 before ending the day at 89.27. The large price swing may be attributed to low levels of liquidity as Japanese markets were closed yesterday for a bank holiday.
This is the fourth consecutive day for a strengthening Yen. The renewed gains sparked further speculation of Japanese government intervention in the currency markets. A strong Yen hurts Japanese exports, a major component of the Japanese economy. The government has made pledges to intervene in the open market, but we have yet to see a firm commitment to help weaken the currency.
Traders may look for the Yen to perhaps continue its bullish run. Keep an eye for the U.S. trade balance report today. This may help to send the JPY higher against the Dollar, possibly below the 89.00 level. Oil Crude Drops below $40 Crude Oil continues to head lower for the 4th day in a row. The driving factor is concerns of the slowing global economy. Rising supplies and lower demand has pushed the price of Crude below the $40 level. This was a support line that many analysts said could not be broken.
The end to a gas feud between Russia and Ukraine did little to lower the risk tolerance in the market and traders continued to move out of equities and riskier commodities throughout the day. This spat was the start of the Crude rally at the beginning of the year. Now the price of Crude Oil stands below this psychological mark. Many of the concerns are on the demand side due to a global recession.
Some are calling for Oil to be priced at $25; however this figure may be a bit to bearish, even for the most skeptical of Crude Oil traders. A $35 mark could be reachable by the end of today's trading.
Technical News
EUR/USD It appears that the bearish trend may have run out of strength as the current price level has dropped the pair into the oversold territory as the 4 hour chart's RSI reveals. The pair also currently floats near the bottom barrier of the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, suggesting a bullish correction may be imminent. In that case, going long with tight stops may be the correct strategy. GBP/USD The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. Both the daily RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, the 4 hour chart's RSI can already be seen in the oversold territory. It appears that the possible next move might be a bullish one. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. USD/JPY The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. USD/CHF Narrow range trading continues as the pair did not make a significant move in either direction, and is currently traded around the 1.12 level. The 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
Before you commence Forex trading for real you need to learn the basic concepts and the inner workings of the Forex market. Individuals who attempt to enter the foreign currency exchange market without an understanding of market fundamentals often end up losing money. To be a successful Forex trader takes education, determination and discipline.
The foreign currency market is a massive, nonstop global trading arena where knowledge and experience are critical to success. The Forex market moves at lightning speed and can take new directions from moment to moment. The ability to identify the direction the market is going to and to invest in the right currencies at the right time is acquired through observation, training and practice. In Forex trading, a great deal of real-time information has to be absorbed, analyzed and acted upon throughout the day. Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It is a skill that is developed over time.
Luckily, a lot of resources and training is available online. Websites and book stores are loaded with Forex trading advice. Anyone with a computer and access to the Internet already has access to a world of information on the basics of the foreign exchange market, technical analysis, trading terminology. More specialized publications (Forex forums included) offer charts, forecasts, Forex outlooks, indices.
Trading platforms provide tutorials, guided tours, seminars and courses.
One can also learn and practice Forex trading with absolutely no financial risk at all through demo accounts offered by many trading platforms. Free demo accounts are designed to familiarize the user with the trading software, as well as test his/her knowledge and strategies under real market conditions. The demo account works exactly like real trading account, except that the user is not exposed to immediate risk. It is advisable to practice with this kind of simulated trading system before using real money and keep detailed records of the trading results to analyze performance.
Other experts and trading platforms recommend starting with very small volumes and increasing them as one gains experience and confidence. For as little as $25 one can start trading and learning in real time.
Forex trading is a profitable and attractive investment opportunity you can do from home or office and from any country in the world. A true trader is a professional who employs knowledge and discipline and uses the latest in technology to execute his daily trading orders.
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The Forex market is not something new, it exists for over thirty years. Prior to the advent of the Internet, Forex trading was mainly done via phone, fax or in-person orders. Most of the trading could only be executed during business hours as well as the activities related to Forex, like deposits and profit taking.
The Internet has caused a radical change in the way Forex trading is conducted throughout the world. The Internet made it possible around-the-clock trading and conveniences such as the use of credit cards for fund deposits. With the introduction of computers, and then the Internet, the Forex market continues to grow as more and more people and businesses alike became aware of this trading market and were given easier access to it.
Online foreign exchange trading occurs in real time. The exchange rates change so rapidly, in intervals of seconds, that the quotes are accurate for the exact time they are displayed only. A different rate may be quoted at any moment. When a trader locks in a rate and executes a transaction, that transaction is immediately processed and the trade completed.
Due to the constant changing rates the Forex software used for online trading must be able to provide real time access to the most current exchange rates, to deal and order making, to deposits and withdrawals and to monitoring the status of positions and trader's accounts. Online trading platforms normally operate 24 hours a day just as the Forex market.
There are two basic steps to fulfill before you can start trading online: 1. Register at a trading platform: registration is done online and the basic information required is the trader's name, address, e-mail, telephone, and sometimes an ID number (passport, SSN or driver's license). The information requirements may vary from one trading platform to another. As part of a global anti-money laundering policy the registrant must declare that the funds used for trading are not the result of money laundering or any criminal activity. 2. Deposit funds: after registering, funds must be deposited to facilitate trading. Many Forex platforms require that, in addition to the funds used for trading, an additional amount be deposited as a “maintenance margin”, which works in fact as an additional guaranteee.
Some trading platforms require the download and installation of specific software that will grant access to trading only to computers that have the software. Others have fully web-based systems that enable trading to be conducted from any computer connected to the internet from anywhere in the world.
If you intend to get involved in forex trading, you must do it through a broker or a financial institution. A broker or investment advisor will be able to tell you more about the forex trading market and the forex trading systems to use.
Deciding which brokerage firm is best for you is as important in the Forex market as it is in the Stock Market. However, the way of evaluating the various firms differs slightly between the two markets. In the Stock Market, brokers earn their money from commissions or a flat "per transaction" fee. Forex trading does not actually involve commissions, but it does have what is known as spread, i.e. the difference between the price a currency can be purchased and the price for which it can be sold at a given time. This spread is how the broker makes its money, so it functions exactly as a commission. You can be pretty certain that the spreads vary between brokerage firms just as widely as commissions do in the Stock Market, so you should investigate this carefully before making your selection.
Most brokerages dealing with the Forex market are involved with large financial institutions where the funds are available to provide sufficient leverage for their clients. It is also important to make sure the firm you choose is reliable. In the US, there are many regulations and laws in regards to who can handle forex trading so if you are searching the internet for a broker, be sure you read the print, and the information about where the company is located and if it is legal for you to do business with that company. They should be registered as a FCM (Futures Commission Merchant), and regulated by the CFTC- Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Several firms offer widely varied packages of tools that can assist you in making trading decisions and understanding the market better. They provide information and research that is available to you in many different formats. It is wise to take a little time to study these tools, and to find the ones that are most helpful to you. They are going to end up being very important and you need to feel comfortable with them.
Look for a firm with a wide variety of account and leverage options. The ability to use the Forex market's advantages in leverage is one of the things that makes it the most attractive to you as an investor, and you want to have the maximum flexibility here. Although there are a few unethical firms operating, a few references and inquires should be able to identify them. Make sure that you learn as much as you can about a broker before you make your decision. It is also a good idea to go with a brokerage company that has been around for a while. This selection process is worth a little effort on your part and an investment of time. It is an investment that is going to most likely pay off by preventing future headaches.
Learning the advantages of investing in the Foreign Currency Exchange Market (Forex) over the Stock or Commodity Market is of fundamental importance when considering the different types of investment. The Forex market offers so many advantages that it is not hard to understand its popularity.
This market is similar to the stock market, as people buy and sell, but the market and the over all results are much larger. On the Forex market, almost two trillion dollars are traded daily. The amount is much higher than the money traded on the daily stock market of any country. The profit potential comes from the fluctuations (changes) in the currency exchange market. The advantage of the Forex Market is that the regular daily fluctuations - often around 1% - are multiplied by 100. Unlike the stock market, where shares are purchased, Forex trading does not require that you purchase or sell actual, physical currency: you work and trade with your own base currency and deal with contracts for amount and exchange rates of any currency pairs you wish to.
While the stock market operates only on business hours, the Forex Market operates 24 hours a day. It is a truly world wide market, constant trading is done in the Forex markets as time zones will vary and the markets will open in one country while another is near closing.
Although it has its trends and cycles, the Forex Market is not locked in the Bear vs. the Bull market mentality of the Stock Exchange. What happens in one market will have an effect on the other countries forex markets, but it is not always bad or good, sometimes the margins of trading are near each other. Since all Forex trades involve the exchange of one currency for another, one currency's hard times opens the door for a profit in another currency. The market is not adversely affected by rising interest rates. When a nation raises rates, normally the currency is strengthened, while rising interest rates tend to depress the stock market.
The number of different stock issues on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ exceeds 8000. That is a lot of stocks and it is time consuming to keep up with even a portion of them. Opposed to it, there are four major currencies, and only about 34 second tier currencies, to consider in the Forex Market. Brokerage firms do not stand between you and profit in the Forex. Not only are the brokerage and commission fees almost non-existent, but analysts in the Forex tend to actually analyze in the currency market and not dictate or control the rise and fall of the market.
Short-term currency trading offers some unique attractions to private investors, like 24-hour trading, volatile markets offering profit opportunities, the ability to profit in rising as well as falling markets, leveraged trading with low margin requirements, options for zero commission trading.
To summarize it, when the two markets are compared, Forex currency trading certainly looks like the better investment choice, even under the present world economy conditions.
The currency trading market is the biggest and fastest growing market on earth, although most people outside of the financial world consider the New York Stock exchange to be the pinnacle of financial trading. The Foreign Exchange Market is in fact the true leader. The Forex Market, as this currency exchange is known, has a volume of around 1.5 trillion United States dollars daily. This staggering amount is over one hundred times larger than the volume of the New York Stock Exchange.
The forex market is over thirty years old as it was established in the early 1970's. It is not based on any one business or investing in any one business, but the trading and selling of currencies. What is traded, bought and sold on the forex market is something that can easily be liquidated, meaning it can be turned back to cash fast, or often times it is actually going to be cash. From one currency to another, the availability of cash in the forex market is something that can happen fast for any investor from any country.
The market is world wide. It is what is known as an “interbank” market where trades are conducted OTC (over the counter), which means they take place directly between the parties involved in the trade rather than through a central exchange. The main centers for the Forex market are located in New York, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Sydney and London. This allows the market to operate virtually 24 hours a day.
Put simply, the Forex market is based on trading the currency of one country for the currency of another country. The ratio of the value of one currency to the other rises and falls, and this ratio is what fuels the market. The trades consist of the simultaneous buying of one currency, for example, United States Dollars (USD), and the selling of another, i.e. The European Euro (EUR).
The most important market in Forex trading is called the “spot market” because trades are executed at once, or "on the spot". There are other elements of Forex trading, such as futures trading, and Forward Outrights, which are slightly more complex than spot trading.
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