Economic News Review

USD

Could the Dollar Continue Its Bullish Trend?

Last week gave some extraordinary opportunities for Forex traders to make profits from going long on the U.S Dollar. The two leading fronts on which the USD marked unique gains are against the EUR and the GBP.

It appears that the USD saw this bullish trend as a result of some unexpected positive news, especially regarding the housing sector. Last week, both the Existing Home Sales, and the New Home Sales, delivered better than expected figures, reflecting in 4.72M residential buildings that were sold during February, and in 337K new single-family homes that were sold during February as well. This data came as a big surprise, as analysts had quite gloomy predictions for the two reports, and therefore turned a very strong uptrend for the Dollar. In addition, as you all must remember, this entire recession began as a result of a deep crisis in the U.S home sector, and now a series of positive result from that sector has managed to elevate the USD so rapidly. Another positive data which came last week were the Durable Goods Orders indices which delivered both much better than expected figures. Whilst analysts anticipated negative growth in the total value of new purchased orders for durable goods during February, the real figures showed almost 4.0% growths.

As for the week ahead, two major events will most likely determine the Dollar's direction for the upcoming week. The first will be the Pending Home Sales which is currently expected to continue to positive line of the housing sector; however a surprising negative result could create some worries among investors regarding the U.S economy. The second major news event will of course be the Non-Farm Employment Change, expected on Friday, 12:30 GMT. as proven many times before, investors are putting a lot of faith in the credibility of this survey, and as such react immediately to its results.

Traders are advised to follow those two leading economic indicators as they are likely to set the tone for the USD trading this week.


EUR

Would the ECB Cut Interest Rates to 1.00% Later On This Week?

An extremely volatile week, which included many ups and downs, concluded with a deep drop for the EUR. The EUR/USD dropped to almost 1.32, and the EUR/JPY fell below 129.50.

The first reason for the EUR drop was the strengthening Dollar, which rose against the EUR as well. The second and even greater reason was the unwillingness of the European Central Bank (ECB) to create a rescue plan for the European Nation, which could somehow imitate the American plan. Investors are now seeing the U.S economy as a dynamic, flexible economy, in which its leaders are doing all they can in order to salvage the situation while they can. On the other hand, the European monetary system is beginning to be seen as a conservative organization, which is reluctant to react to the rapidly changing conditions of the global economy. Investors are thirsty for a European rescue plan, and if one shall arrive, it will probably signal an uptrend for the European currency.

As for this week, the ECB will announce the new Minimum Bid Rate on Thursday, and is widely expected to cut Interest Rates by 0.5% to merely 1.00%. Some might say that this move is too little, too late, as the U.S, Japan and Great Britain have all lowered their Rates below 1.00%, without succeeding in making a real change in their economies. Nevertheless, if indeed the ECB will decide to cut Interest Rates, an immediate reaction of a drop in EUR value is expected.

Forex traders are also advised to follow Jean-Claude Trichet's speech on Monday, as he may discuss the possibility of cutting Interest Rates. Such comments could have massive influence on the market.


JPY

The JPY Looks to Halt Its Bullish Momentum

Over the last trading week the JPY saw rising trends against the EUR and the GBP, and experienced mixed results vs. the USD. The JPY underwent it most remarkable bullish trend against the EUR, as the EUR/JPY dropped to the 129.40 level.

Last week the Japanese Trade Balance showed a difference of -0.04T between exported to imported goods during February. Although this is a negative figure, it was much better than the -0.29T which was expected. This indicator has an immense impact on the Japanese economy as it relies greatly on its export activity. Also last week, the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in price of goods and services, rose by 0.4% in March, also indicating that the Japanese economy is on the phase of expanding, and not contracting.

As for the week ahead, most of the impacting data will be delivered from the Euro-Zone and the U.S economy. Nevertheless, traders should follow the Tankan Indices, which are expected on Tuesday night. These surveys cover a wide range of the local manufacturers, and thus have a large impact on the Yen. Analysts forecast extremely negative figures for the indices, and such result might generate a bearish trend for the JPY.

Source: Forexyard Daily Forex analysis

Forex Charts – What Are They and How Do You Read Them?

There are two basic approaches for online forex trading, When learning to read forex charts. They are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis doesn’t rely on forex charts. It uses both political and economic factors to help determine trades. Charts here are only used as a reference. Technical analysis on the other hand will try to predict where the prices are going by analysis of historical price activity. Those who use technical analysis study the relationship between price and time.

The most traded pair of currencies is the Euro and the US dollar, so we will use them in our example. The dollar is on the right hand side of the chart and the Euro is on the left hand side. The currencies are expressed in relationship to each other in pairing. Forex charts will always display how much of the currency on the right hand side is necessary to buy a unit of the currency on the left hand side. Looking at the chart you will notice the last price displayed on a given date. This number is always highlighted. The time is recorded horizontally across the bottom of a chart and the price scale is displayed vertically along the right hand edge of the chart. The time and the price are often in all caps to help the trader remember that technical analysis is about the relationship between time and price. That is a fundamental rule of this type of relationship.

There are many ways to observe the price and time movement on a chart. These include bars, lines, point and figure, and Japanese candle sticks, the most popular method.

With the candlestick method there is a fat, red section that is the body of the candlestick. Lines protrude from the top and bottom and they are the upper and lower wicks. When you look at al the candles on a chart it is clear that bodies can be difference sizes and sometimes there is no body at all.

The same is true with wicks. Candle wicks can be of many difference sizes, or there may be no wick at all. The length of the body and the length of the wick are determined by the price range for the candle. Longer candles will have had more price movement during the time that they were open. The top of a candle wick is the highest price for that currency while the wick’s bottom is the lowest price. A candle or currency is bullish when the close of the candle is higher than the open. In English this means that there were more buyers than there were sales during the opening time period. Sometimes the candles will not have wicks. The price opened and it dropped off until it closed.

Forex charts are not a sure fire method, but they are a tool that can help a trader. Many forex traders use charts on a regular basis. Historical trends do have their place in forex trading as most traders will admit, and using the charts to track historical trends can assist a trader in making a decision today.

Often the charts are online rather than on paper. By joining a service that provides the charts via the internet a trader is able to stay very current indeed on currency activity. Charts can be checked on a minute to minute basis. For those who primarily do their trading based on historical accuracy this can be a true help.

Most forex traders however use a combination of the two approaches. They may chart historical trends, but they will also pay close attention to political, cultural and economic events within a nation. They may also use charts or other methods to check and see if a particular political event as a recent historical parallel that can be checked to determine how the currency behaved in past times. Simply following a system usually is not enough. A trader should also be a student of history and of economics. Using all the tools at your disposal will make you a better and stronger forex trader.

Surefire Strategy For Losing Money In Forex

When it comes to forex trading, here is a trading strategy that is bound to lose you a lot of money in no time: the "Go-with-your-gut" strategy...unless your gut is highly trained and impervious to emotion. The trick to making money in the currency exchange market is to avoid making any emotional decisions and follow a carefully thought out strategy that takes the current market and history into account.



Forex trading is a highly volatile market. Emotions tend to run high – and low – and either of those extremes can influence your trading decisions, unless you have a strategy planned in advance, and stick to it, no matter what you THINK you’re seeing at the moment. The keys to success in Forex are system, analysis and perseverance. Note that emotion is not one of them. Going with your gut is a losing proposition in forex trading.

Letting your emotions rule your decisions can hurt your trading in several different ways. It’s the reason that most experienced traders tell novice traders that they need to develop a system – and stick to it no matter what. The system tells you when to buy, what to buy, when to trade and what to trade for. By sticking to your system even when you want to fly in the face of accumulated data, you’ll maximize your profits.

Today's Technical News

EUR/USD

There appears to be a bullish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating that an upward correction is expected in the near future. However, almost all other oscillators are stuck in neutral territory, signaling that this pair may be less volatile than expected. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.

GBP/USD

A bearish cross on the 4-hour chart is forming, signaling a potential price drop, while the Bollinger Bands are also tightening, pointing to an imminent volatile price movement. However, the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicates a recent bullish cross, signaling a possible upward movement. In the short-term traders may expect a downward correction, but longer-term traders may want to maintain their long positions today.





USD/JPY

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI and there appears to be an imminent bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic, indicating a downward correction may occur soon. The price also appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the daily chart's RSI which also lends support to this notion. Going short might be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now with no specific direction. The daily chart's Slow Stochastic is providing us with mixed signals, however it's Bollinger Bands are tightening, implying that a violent breach may take place. Until that will happen, 4 hour chart reflects quite a stable fluctuation within a flat channel thus providing traders a chance to make profits from buying on dips and selling on highs.

Brief Information For Traders

Here's a short daily analysis from Forexyard Experts:

EUR/USD

The hourlies show quite a wide range-trading with no specific direction; however, the daily chart's Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating upcoming increased volatility. A bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic indicates an upcoming test of the 1.2800 level once again. If that level is breached, swinging in the trend would be the best strategy.

GBP/USD

The pair's bullish price movement continues within the bullish channel, which still has yet to be breached. The bullish cross forming on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic supports the upward notion as well. The RSI is floating above the 50 level pointing to the continuation of the upward movement. Next testing point might be around 1.4950.

USD/JPY

After touching a base at 90.89, the pair now consolidates a bit higher at around the 91.46 level. All oscillators show that the bullish momentum will probably continue. The Slow Stochastic of the 4-hour chart is showing no crosses in the horizon, and the bullish momentum there appears to be intact as well. On the daily chart, this pair is still trending upwards and there are no imminent indications of a reversal. Therefore, traders can maximize profits by entering steady long positions.

USD/CHF

The bullish momentum continues full steam ahead within the bullish channel which still has yet to be breached. The 4-hour chart is showing a strong bullish cross, and the RSI on the hourly chart also supports the continuation of the bullish movement. Next testing point should be around 1.1780. Going long appears to be preferable today.